Scaffold tube costs up 5% this quarter, and HMRC’s first CBAM numbers point to a far smaller January rise than feared
The TUBEIND Index, which tracks the cost of landing imported scaffold tube in the UK, currently stands at 81, up from 77 in the summer. Higher freight and a weaker pound did the damage.
What the index measures
The TUBEIND Index tracks what it costs to import scaffold tube before any importer or wholesaler adds a margin.
The index is set to 100 at June 2023, so a reading of 81 means tube costs 19% less to land than it did then. We show each driver so you can see what is pushing the number up or down. The series is built monthly from actual shipments and shown here by calendar quarter.
The index since June 2023
Tube has cost less to land than in June 2023 every quarter since, with the 2024 Red Sea crisis the only period that came close. On HMRC’s illustrative CBAM rate it stays below that level through the first half of 2027.
What moved this quarter
The index rose from 77 to 81, about 5%. Almost all of it came from two places. i) ocean shipping rates have been climbing since the summer as importers are pulling stock forward to land it before CBAM starts ii) Sterling has weakened since the spring. For most of 2025 and early 2026 a strong pound was quietly cutting the cost of imported steel. That tailwind has gone and turned into a small headwind.
Steel prices have hardly changed at all as Chinese domestic demand remains weak and mills have had little room to raise prices. That stability is the main reason tube has stayed cheap through 2025 and 2026.
What comes next: CBAM
From 1 January 2027 every tonne of steel imported into the UK carries a carbon charge under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. On 16 October HMRC published draft numbers for that charge. The final rate for ships arriving between January and March will be published before the end of December
That draft rate is lower than most of the market expected. Scaffold tube will be charged roughly an extra 7p per foot. Note: This is the default charge. For importers working with suppliers that have actual emissions data (verified by an approved, independent third party) the charge should be lower.
That lifts the index by about 8 points, from 81 to around 86 in the first quarter, with a range of 85 to 89. Freight easing after the pre-CBAM import rush offsets about 3 of those points. The net effect on landed tube in January is a rise of about 6%.
For fittings, they weigh around the same as a foot of 3.2mm tube, so expect a similar 7p increase in your double, swivels and sleeves which may also be slightly offset by an easing of freight prices.
